The total market cap of BTC has all the chances to drop from over $118 billion to no more than $77 billion by the end of 2018, the new research says. Switzerland-based professors have been observing the most popular cyber-coin in the world and found out that this asset no longer attracts huge numbers of users.
The slowing of active BTC clients is the first sign which, according to "Metcalfe's law,” shows the potential of bitcoin’s total market cap to drop, CNBC reports.
What is Metcalfe's Law?
As per this rule, the value of the net is proportional to the scope of people who use it. In case of the “King of all cryptos,” this law points out that in less than ten months BTC’s total market cap will not exceed $77 billion.
This is what two researchers in the field of business hazards – Spencer Wheatley and Didier Sornette – concluded. The professors stated it in the document, dated March 16.
What to Expect?
To imagine the scope of the foreseeable changes, let’s state some facts. If bitcoin’s cap indeed decreases to $77 billion, that will be about 35% less than the total market cap of BTC on April 3.
The Swiss professors also added that ahead all BTC users should anticipate reassessment of bitcoin’s price. However, according to their opinion, it is not going to be unexampled but essential instead. Therefore, everybody should brace for future fluctuations of bitcoin’s price.
Notably, in 2017, bitcoin grew up 13 times. However, it also managed to lose 50% of its value, gained last year, within the first quarter of the current year. As of writing, bitcoin is being traded at about $7,000, and it remains to be the most considerable cyber-coin in terms of market cap.
Bubble Will Soon Burst?
Also, in the paper, presented by Swiss researchers, there is included a math model for assessing speculative bubbles, called "Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity."
Interestingly, the professors have found that there are four BTC bubbles which can be related to that pattern.
According to the document, among impulses for this kind of bubbles, there is a 2011 cyber-attack at the digital money trading venue Mt. Gox, which does not exist anymore, as well as the danger of shutting down all the crypto bourses in South Korea at the end of 2017. According to the document, those events and some others of that type led to significant declines in the price of cryptos.
Lots of bitcoin enthusiasts and supporters gladly claim that despite any corrections, the currency will soon recover. Moreover, lots if BTC bulls like Tom Lee even forecast the unprecedented skyrocketing of the “king.”
The Swiss researchers, in their turn, try to be cautious when it comes to advising people to deal with cryptos. In particular, in their paper, they stressed that users should not concentrate on passing triggers, "but monitor the increasingly unstable state of the bubbly market, and prepare for a correction."